Estimation and forecasting in vector autoregressive moving average models for rich datasets

We address the issue of modelling and forecasting macroeconomic variables using rich datasets by adopting the class of Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models. We overcome the estimation issue that arises with this class of models by implementing an iterative ordinary least squares (IOLS) estimator. We establish the consistency and asymptotic distribution of the estimator for weak and strong VARMA(p,q) models. Monte Carlo results show that IOLS is consistent and feasible for large systems, outperforming the MLE and other linear regression based efficient estimators under alternative scenarios. Our empirical application shows that VARMA models are feasible alternatives when forecasting with many predictors. We show that VARMA models outperform the AR(1), ARMA(1,1), Bayesian VAR, and factor models, considering different model dimensions.     

‘What’s on your Bucket List?’: Tourism,identity and imperative experiential discourse

The concept of the Bucket List has achieved rapid and widespread recognition. This article makes an original Critical Discourse Analysis of the Bucket List as a cultural phenomenon that provides important insights into the interrelation between identity and tourism. The Bucket List is used to communicate specific suggestions of desirable tourism experiences and uses what can be termed the experiential imperative discourse, where the language, tone and framing of the text positions the experience described as essential and obligatory. Ultimately, the Bucket List discourse serves to prescribe culturally specific ideas of what constitute ‘good’ tourism experiences and is imposed on individuals who are prompted to desire a constantly renewing range of tourism experiences.     

A theory of iterative choice in lists

In a list, alternatives appear according to an order and the decision maker follows this order to evaluate alternatives. He records the first alternative as the initial survivor and then at every stage, he compares the current survivor with the next alternative in the list to determine whether the next alternative replaces that to become the new survivor. When the entire list is exhausted in this manner, the agent chooses the survivor in the last stage. We call this procedure “iterative” and provide an axiomatic characterization for it when the order in every list is observable. Then, we also study characterizations of the iterative procedure that is prone to the well-known primacy and recency effects. Finally, we analyze situations where the order of alternatives is unknown to an outside observer and provide a characterization result that enables such an outsider with limited information to understand whether the decision maker can indeed be an iterative list chooser for some order.     

中国(上海)自由贸易试验区增值电信业务开放制度创新

中国(上海)自由贸易试验区挂牌成立后在开放上采用了"负面清单"模式,增值电信业务也位列其中,这标志着中国增值电信市场的新一轮开放已拉开帷幕。为进一步加快增值电信业务的开放,将引进外资的政策落到实处,进行上海自贸区增值电信业务开放制度创新是当下的首要任务。立足上海自贸区现状,结合中国增值电信业发展的大环境,为上海自贸区增值电信业务开放存在的问题提出相应的对策建议、提供制度保障迫在眉睫。降低上海自贸区增值电信业务准入门槛,消除业内隐性壁垒,建立健全相关法律、法规,加强事中监管和市场退出机制建设等是上海自贸区进一步推进增值电信业务开放的必然要求。     

对提升直接税比重 均衡税制结构的思考

提高直接税比重是税制改革所需迫切解决的重要议题,从而实现税种配置上的大致均衡。但是,由于征管手段等原因,至今未取得实质性突破。构建直接税体系,更符合税负公平和量能纳税为原则的现代税法核心,因此逐步提高直接税比重,并扬长避短,发挥直接税和间接税的各自优势。     

Analysis on the Technical Trade Barriers Faced by China's Vegetable Export and China-Japan Vegetable Trade Friction

本文对中国蔬菜出口所面临的技术型贸易壁垒形式进行分析,并就中日蔬菜贸易战及日本肯定列表制度对我国的影响与相应对策进行探讨。     

Biases in self-reported food insecurity measurement: A list experiment approach

Measuring the incidence and intensity of food insecurity has long been a challenge due to its conceptual and practical complexity. Several scholars have proposed objective and subjective measurements to monitor or evaluate food in(security) programs. While the objective measurements such as food caloric intake and food expenditure are data demanding and costly, the subjective measurements such as experience-based food insecurity scales that use direct responses to food shortage questions can be prone to biases and misreporting due to respondents’ unobservable economic and social desirability concerns. This paper reports the biases when food shortage is asked through direct questions and indirect interviews using a list experiment approach—an approach widely used to elicit the true responses of respondents for a sensitive question. The list experiment was conducted on four selected self-reported food insecurity survey questions which represent both the availability (incidence) and access (intensity) dimensions of food security. The sample households were drawn from two districts in Northern Ethiopia where households are chronically food insecure and several projects have been implemented. The results indicate the existence of significant bias in self-reported food insecurity responses when implemented through direct interviews. The results also show that the biases, particularly the ones related to incidence questions, have led to erroneous conclusion about the impact of a food security program—the Ethiopian Household Asset Building (HAB) program. Based on the findings, the paper highlights possible options and precautionary actions for measuring food insecurity using self-reported questions.     

Distortions in the trade policy for development debate: A re-examination of Friedrich List

This paper re-examines the works of Friedrich List and arguesthat he had a vision of how to promote economic and social developmentfrom the initial state of an advanced agricultural society thathas been distorted in the trade policy for development debate.It shows that his vision is much broader than the orthodox labelof ‘protectionism’ conveys. He thus proposed manymethods of promoting development, cautioned and suggested measuresagainst the drawbacks of protection, and emphasised exports.It is hoped that this paper will contribute to the debate onthe wisdom behind the current push toward trade liberalisation.     

Lifestyle Market Segmentation,Small Business Entrepreneurs,and the New Zealand Wine Tourism Industry

ABSTRACT

Wine tourism is an important niche activity for which participant needs and motivations have been somewhat under-researched. This paper describes a case study investigation to evaluate the nature of buyer/seller relationships that evolve in a wine tourism setting. Visitors to three small New Zealand wineries were interviewed to gather data relating to their lifestyle behaviors and their attitudes towards the wine tourism experience, and factor analysis used to categorize these visitors in terms of the List of Values typology of lifestyle characteristics. Results indicate that the 'achiever' and 'funlover' segments are well represented amongst winery visitors, but that there is an appreciably lower incidence of 'belonger' personalities. Implications of these findings for the wine tourism industry are considered.     

Is UNESCO recognition effective in fostering tourism? A comment on Yang,Lin and Han: Reply

This note replies Cellini's comment on the real effect of WHL in inducing more tourist arrivals in Yang, Lin and Han (2010, Tourism Management). Due to the time-invariant feature of the WHL number in the short-run, the fixed effect of panel data model seems to be inadequate on evaluating the impact of WHL on attracting international tourists. However, pooling estimates show that a region with more WHLs can attract more tourists.